Market IT

Moving to Southocean.net

Posted in S&P by CW on February 15, 2015

Chasw.wordpress.com is moving to http://www.southocean.net/

I’ve set up the South Ocean website to utilize these techniques and provide trade setups. It will be a subscription site hopefully useful to those that are interested in doing their own trading.

Take a look! The Trade process and Trade Setups could actually help you make a little money.

http://www.southocean.net/

Thanks for watching, Charlie

 

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Hurst Cycles

Posted in S&P by CW on February 15, 2015

Hurst

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S&P Futures

Posted in S&P by CW on February 15, 2015

New highs this last week. Changes in the Eurozone growth prospects and perhaps a cessation of hostilities in the Ukraine increase economic confidences.

Monthly – 2191 remains the upside target. Trade pressures are up. Monthly net volume was bearish.

Weekly – the weekly short entry was triggered at 2016 two weeks ago, but the trade above the highs will cancel that short trade. The next target up is 2112. Trade pressures are up but not as much as price, so be wary of this move. Volume is bullish.

Daily – in the long trade from the 2036 long entry. The next target up is 2097, then 2144. Some new bullish volume came in last Friday. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

a close below 2067 would signal lower. Use that level as a stop.

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S&P Futures

Posted in S&P by CW on February 1, 2015

Trying to be aware of any change in the pressures on the different time frames. The volatility has increased which has generated  some large swing days.  Sellers seem to have the upper hand.  But, for every seller someone is a buyer.

Monthly – Price has closed below the 3 month moving average. Trade pressures are still up but have lost momentum. And for the first time is many months the volume is bearish.  2191 remains the upside target. the monthly short entry is 1869.

Weekly – For the last three weeks prior to Fridays close, price has trade down thru the short entry price for the weekly but closed above; until Friday’s close. The weekly has confirmed the short with the close below 2016.

Daily – has been short on the three month cycle from 2042.  The trade has met the 1978 target. The next target down is 1964 and the 200 day moving average.  Could have traded the counter trend retracement trade off the January 19th low at 1970 at the 2001 long entry back to 2048, but this is very choppy and the trend is down.

Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish.  Need a close above the 2035 to start a new move up.

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US $$

Posted in Currencies by CW on February 1, 2015

USD (DX)_ money flows are in the direction of the dollar and away from the other currencies.

Weekly – trading and consolidating above the 94.66 target. Trading pressures are up. Volume is showing neutral for the first time in weeks.  A close below 94.22 could signal lower.

Daily – The same inflows have pushed the dollar to a high of 95.85, very close to the 96.04 target. the trade pressures are neutral. Volume is bullish. The short entry is a close below 94.33.

30YR T-BONDS_ the weekly has some upside target at 160-20 and 164-10, but that would imply some very low yields? And a severe flow out of other asset classes.

Weekly – consolidating above the 150-14 target. Trade pressures are up. volume is bullish. a close below 147-14 would signal a new short.

Daily – Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. Have reached the 151-12 target. should have some consolidation here. A close below 150-01 would signal a new short entry with a downside target at 147-03.

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Oil & Gas

Posted in Energy by CW on February 1, 2015

CRUDE_ saw some short covering in the afternoon on Friday.

Weekly – Trade pressures are still down. Volume is bearish. The next target down is 39.13.

Daily – Trade pressures have turned up. Volume is bullish. Price has closed above the long entry price of 48.05. The next target up is 55.30.  The stop is the 43.57 low.

NAT GAS_ NAT GAS has broken down below support.

Weekly – Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. The next target down is 2.22.

Daily – has broken below the 2.79 down side target. the next target down is 2.35. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish.

Need a close above 2.86 to start anew move up.

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Metals

Posted in Metals by CW on February 1, 2015

COPPER_ testing the 2.41 downside target last week.

Weekly – trade pressures are down. volume is neutral.
the next weekly target down is 2.32.

Daily – Consolidating at the 2.41 target. Trade pressures are turning up.
Volume has turned neutral from bearish.

need a close above 2.52 to start a new move up.

GOLD_ trade to the 1304 target and closed below a retracement short entry.

Weekly – Trade pressures are up Volume is bullish. Appears to have bottomed at the 1142 level. However need to take out the 1426 pivot to confirm a long term up-move.

Daily – Trade pressures have turned down. Volume is bearish. The Trade is short from the 1286 entry price with a 1231 downside target.

SILVER_ trading with gold.

Weekly- Trade pressures are up. Volume is bearish. Next target down is 10.70. Need a weekly close above 21.47 to start a new move up.

Daily – Long from 15.61. The next target up is 18.22 which has been reached. In a pull back for the 18.22 target to the moving average. Trade pressures are down. Volume is neutral.

 

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S&P Futures

Posted in S&P by CW on January 25, 2015

Monthly – Trade pressures remain up. Volume has turned neutral from bullish.next target up is 2191.
the monthly time cycles show downward pressures into June 2015.

Weekly – Trade pressures are down. Volume has turned neutral from bullish. Price has traded around the 2016 short entry for three weeks but no trigger yet. Be Alert! as this will confirm the Daily sell, and signal lower to 1904.

Daily  – the trade was short from the 2037 short entry on Jan 12th. Eventually traded down to the 80 day and other nearby targets around 1978.  the 1967 target and the 200 Day moving average are still active.

Trade pressures turned up as price closed above a short cycle retracement long entry at 2001 which was confirmed by a subsequent breakout above the pitchfork. The 2048 target was met and the move up was stopped on Friday by the 2062 pivot high.

Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish. The next target up is 2097.

a close below 2035 would restart the move down.

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US $$

Posted in Currencies by CW on January 25, 2015

USD (DX)_ can look at both the rise in the dollar and the decline in oil, they mirror each other. So perhaps when one stops the other does also.  the rising dollar makes the US exporters less competitive.  45 percent of the sales from the S&P 500 companies comes from outside the US. so they are “exporters”.

Weekly – the 94.66 target has been met with a large move thru it this last week. A very extended move up. Clearly a flight to the US markets.  A close below 94.22 could signal the beginning of a sell off.

Daily – Price has consolidated above the 91.72 target over the last two weeks and then began a big move up last week amid the European QE news. the next target up is 96.04. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. Hard to see the DX going much higher. A move down thru the 94.25 level could see the start of a retracement.

30YR TBonds_ and of course if you are going to buy dollars, then they have to go somewhere; and until some thing better comes along the Treasury bills and bonds seem to be the market of choice.

Weekly – at the 150-14 target. The next target higher is 154-18. Trade pressures are up. Volume is bullish.

Daily – has come with in 2 ticks of the 151-12 target at 151-10 high on Friday week. Then the short entry at 149-15 was triggered with a downside target of 146-17. Trade pressures are down and Volume is neutral. Profiting , or a new move down?

EURO Futures (EC)_
weekly – touched the 1.114 down side target. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. Next weekly target is .9365.

Daily – the daily trade has been down from 1.2550. Traded thru the 1.1410 target. the next target down is 1.0488.

Need a trade close above 1.1562 to start a retracement up.to the breakdown at 1.2279.

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Oil & Gas

Posted in Energy by CW on January 25, 2015

CRUDE_ Prince Alalweed declares oil will never see $100 again. Russia produces 10 million barrels a day but that is declining. Libya and Iraq are bringing more supplies on line. China growth is slowing so needs less. Japan is a net purchaser of energy, so their economy should see a cost benefit.   [http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/25/opinion/sunday/what-happened-to-the-price-of-oil.html?_r=0].  Many cross currents!

Weekly – price is consolidating around the 48.65 target. Volume is bearish. Trade pressures are down. The next target down is 39.125.

Daily – the 44.80 target is acting as support. There is a new long entry at 49.17, but has been no close above that level yet. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. The next target down is the weekly 39.13 target.

NAT GAS_  back at the three year lows, even in the middle of winter.

Weekly – near the the 2012 pivot low of 2.70. The next target down is 2.22. Trade pressures are down. Volume is bearish. Need a close above 3.52 to start a new move up.

Daily  – In the long trade from the 3.00 entry. The next target up is the 3.37 level. Trade pressures a down. Volume is bearish. A close below the 2.78 low is a stop.

 

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